Super Volcanoes

 

Contents:
Yellowstone and the NASA
Yellowstone Park today
Alaskan 'quakes affect Yellowstone
Toba caldera yesterday

Conclusion - The future


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Aniakchak Caldera., Alaska


     The subject of Volcanoes is so vast that it is hard to know where to start. I had toyed with the idea of doing a page on volcanoes but not being an expert I didn't know by which end to start and I didn'r really want to do "Another" page about Hawaian Volcanoes or Pinatubo... until one day.

      I was watching the TV one evening and switching channels when I came across a BBC documentary about Super volcanoes. Having switched over after the the start I missed the title and the theme of the documentary and was half watching and half toying with the idea of switching channels again when I actually started listening. The narrator was explaining how a palaeontologist, studying fossils in Antelope county, Nebraska , stumbled across what was probably one of the most astounding and intriguing sights a palaeontologist could ever expect to find. It was the sight of a sudden cataclysm. Hundreds of fossilized prehistoric animals enveloped in volcanic ash¹.This was intriguing because there are no volcanoes in Nebraska and it is a known fact that volcano eruptions, such as Mount St Helens (Wa) considered a strong eruption, only spread ash as far as ± 30 miles from the initial point of eruption.
In fact this had happened at least twice before in prehistoric times. Once 11 million years ago when the 'Bruneau-Jarbridge' eruption occurred and once ±750 000 years ago when the cataclysmic Long Valley, Ca, volcanic eruption blew out 150 cubic miles of magma as far east as Nebraska)
         ( By now I was beginning to follow the documentary with some interest). All things considered the
scientists where starting to look further afield and determined that the ash actually came from a volcanic eruption some 1000 miles to the west!* (NOAA map of the USA). If this was indeed the case the scientists where discovering the existence of a geological force of such dimensions it would relegate a lot of other geological or meteorological phenomena to a lesser degree of importance.


      The geologists had backtracked the ash, from Nebraska, to the initial point of eruption. They had found a depression
, or caldera¹ , in the ground and estimated that the caldera was the result of a geological implosion, measuring, in the process, the caldera to be of ± 50 sq miles in size.
¹ Caldera: The Spanish word for cauldron, a basin-shaped volcanic depression; by definition, at least a mile in diameter. Such large depressions are typically formed by the subsidence of volcanoes. Crater Lake ² (Or) occupies the best-known caldera in the Cascades.
² The Crater lake Landsat scene in southern Oregon (just below the bottom of the mosaic) contains several features of special interest both within and east of the Cascades.
The focal point in the Landsat image is the circular lake known as Crater Lake. This 12 km wide (8 miles) lake lies within a volcano, known as Mt. Mazama, that collapsed and erupted violently about 10000 years ago, probably before humans had settled in the region, expulsing thick ash beds ( much more than expelled from Mt. St. Helens in 1980).
Klamath Lake lies near the bottom of the image. The blue lake to the east is Summer Lake. The Great Sandy Desert (dark blue) is a series of volcanic flows that are roughly coeval with the Snake River Plains to the east.
Striking also is the conspicuous large elliptical feature northeast of Crater Lake. It resembles a huge volcanic caldera. The western part is known as the 'Walker Rim' is a cliff composed of volcanic flows however solid evidence for a caldera was not obvious. This may be a coincidental artifact of several topographic features that because of vegetation distribution gives the impression of ellipticity.

     By sounding the ground under the caldera², as well as in the vicinity, the geologists found traces of a subterranean chamber. Traces of vertical shafts in the earth's core were also found and it was deduced that these shafts had been formed by magma pushing up through faults in the earths crust allowing the magma to flow into the subterranean chamber and gradually fill it until it had completely filled the chamber and could apparently fill the chamber no further. However the magma had apparently continued to pour into the chamber causing the ceiling of the chamber to convex upwards. This continued until the pressure was so great that the roof of the chamber eventually exploded propulsing lava and rock over such as distance as to reach Nebraska ± 1000 miles to the east.
² Volcanoes containing tephra sheets, such as the composite cones, are more prone to forming calderas once an eruption occurs.

     At this point in the documentary the narration switches back to Yellowstone explaining how one particular geologist has been monitoring the Yellowstone Park since the 60s and had noticed variations in the seismological readings. Tourist attraction that it is and being strategically placed towards the western rim of the North American Tectonic plate the Yellowstone National park is closely monitored and has been since the 1920s, and since that time the geologists have been seeing that the surface of the Yellowstone National park has been imperceptibly rising to such a point that by the mid 1980s a rise of 3 foot had been measured.

Yellowstone and the NASA

     Apart from monitoring the seismological activity in the Yellowstone National Park, geologists have also been studying the actual layout of the park itself. This study of the Park took on a new dimension when they had the chance to collaborate with the NASA. The NASA were wanting to test a new camera for their next expedition to Mars and the camera was destined to study the Martian floor and what better way to test real-time and under relatively similar conditions than to combine their testings with the geological studies underway in the park. (NB. Since then the Park is under Satellite observation).
The scientists had known about the different geological periods of the Park and where looking for ways to develope their existing knowledge so when the chance to work with the NASA presented itself it was seized upon. Before the testing started the scientists had no idea just how beneficial this joint venture was going to be and what the long term impact would be.
The testing started and the NASA's Turboprop flew long and large over the Park and took a series photographs. Once the photographs were developed the revelation was immediate. The photographs clearly illustrated not one caldera but 3 overlapping calderas
.
The scientists were astounded. They totally, but naturally, ignored the existence of any such caldera in the Park. Seen from ground, with all the trees, mountains, valleys , rivers, etc. it was impossible to spot any such calderas as they are totally hidden to the eye at ground level . However once alerted and with the help of the aerial photography the scientists set about studying the overlapping calderas. They were able to determine that each of the 3 calderas corresponded with a distinct period of volcanic activity and they were able to date each activity at intervals of ± 600 00 years. The 01st and oldest caldera being dated ±2 000 000 years ago (Huckleberry Ridge Tuff ¹), the 02nd at ±1 300 000 years and the 03rd ±630 000 years ago (Lava Creek Tuff), sweeping volcanic ash, pumice, and gases across an area of more than 3,000 sq miles².
Tuff : Rock formed of pyroclastic material.)

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     This left the scientists with a dilemma. If the 3 eruptions had occurred at intervals of ±600 000 years and the last one was ±600 000 years ago then it could be reasonably supposed that another eruption in the Yellowstone National Park was imminent, if not overdue. The thought was frightening. Should a Super Volcano erupt today the result would be a continental catastrophe with global consequences.
The 'Crater lake' and 'Long valley' supervolcanoes had exploded in prehistoric times ( ± 11 million years and 750 000 years ago). . The planet was different then and above all it was void of human life. When it is considered that ash from the 'Crater lake' eruption was found ± 1000 miles from the point of eruption should the Yellowstone park erupt
, in Wyoming, today lava and rock would be sent as far as Los Angeles and San Francisco with such devastating effect that not even the 1906 San Francisco earthquake combined with the Mt St Helens eruption could compare with the after effects of a super volcanic eruption.

Super volcano "Yellowstone Park" today


click to see full size
Aerial view toward the south of thick intracaldera lava flows of the forested Madison and Pitchstone Plateaus, burying the west rim of the Yellowstone caldera. The plateaus preserve the characteristic form of these thick flows, The Teton Range rises beyond the caldera to the distant skyline.

     Although the planet is covered , from Iceland to New Zealand and all around the Pacific ring of fire, with innumerable volcanoes that punctuate the planet's tectonic plates, there are, however, only an estimated 50 "Hotsots" that could be classified as "Super Volcanoes" and the Yellowstone National is one of these.
(NB. The term "Super volcano" is recent and is apparently attributed to the BBC's Horizon team)

      It is fairly logical to think that a certain number of the other super volcanos are submarine it may be supposed that there are others, possibly active on the surface of the earth that are still to be identified, possibly for the same reason that the 'Crater lake' and 'Yellowstone' calderas took so long to be identified.

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Alaskan Earthquakes affect Yellowstone

     A brief excursion to Alaska illustrates the interactivity of tectonic plates, in this case the North American plate. According to reports in 2002 a major earthquake in Alaska set off a chain of smaller earthquakes in the Yellowstone National Park more than 2,000 miles away. Within hours geysers in the park changed their eruption patterns, according to the journal "Geology". Researchers believe that earthquakes keep geysers alive by periodically shaking loose clogged channels. The Alaskan earthquake was one of the strongest in North America in the past 150 years.

Thousand smaller quakes
     Robert Smith of the University of Utah says that this study shows that large earthquakes at large distances can have profound effects on the Yellowstone geysers and that they did not expect to see these prolonged changes in the hydrothermal system. The geysers showed changes just a few hours after the shock waves from the 3 November Alaskan earthquake passed through triggering more than a thousand minor local earthquakes with the shock waves, many of them near hot springs and geysers, altering water and steam pressure in the geysers, opening new channels and unclogging others.

      In the study, the researchers looked at the eruption patterns of 22 geysers during the winter of 2002-3 noticing that eight geysers showed major changes. One of them - Daisy Geyser - erupted more often but returned to its normal pattern after a few weeks. The geysers Castle, Plate and Plume also displayed short-term irregularities that lasted for a few days. Several small hot springs, not known to have geysered before, suddenly surged into a heavy boil with eruptions as high as one metre. The temperature at one of these springs increased from about 42C to 93C in a very short period of time and became much more acidic than normal. In the same area, another hot spring, usually cristal clear, turned muddy.
NB. Scientists once believed that an earthquake in one location could not trigger earthquakes at distant sites. That view was altered after the 1992 Landers Earthquake (magnitude 7.3) in California's Mojave Desert triggered a spate of quakes more than 800 miles away at Yellowstone.
Researchers believe that the Alaskan quake focused its energy southeast towards Yellowstone meaning that the stresses rippling through the ground at Yellowstone were 200-300 times greater than if the quakes's waves were aimed elsewhere. So when you think that a super volcano eruption is due anytime now in the Yellowstone park it makes one wonder just what exactly would it take to set the super volcano eruption off?

Information courtesy of the BBC

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Toba caldera- Sumatra - Yesterday

     One Super volcano that has, however, been identified is Lake Toba in Sumatra. The 'Lake Toba' Super volcano exploded ± 75 000 years ago covering the entire planet with volcanic clouds. The result was radical for planet. The clouds were loaded with mineral that deflected the sunlight and caused the temperature of the planet to drop globally by ±5 degrees F and at certain latitudes, by ± 15 degrees F (Some estimates put the average world widedrop in temperature to be about 21 degrees). An estimated 75 per cent of the northern hemisphere's plants are thought to have died. Six years of this dramatic cooling triggered a thousand-year ice age causing a volcanic winter but most importantly it all but eradicated the human race, such as it was at the time, from the face of the planet.
Following various studies (see below) scientists estimate that following the 'Lake Toba' Super volcano eruption the number of our ancestors dropped to as low as ±5 to 10 thousand... in the whole world!
To corroborate this hypothesis geneticists, studying the Human DNA, had realized that there is, in fact, very little variation in the DNA of the 6 billion humans alive today and remarking this lack of variety the geneticists undertook to elucidate this phenomenon. Due to the fact the geneticists can study DNA mutation, allowing them to chronicle all the major events of our past, they were able to establish the fact that the Human race had experienced a catastrophic reduction in the size of its population at a given point in its past. It appears that a genetic 'Bottleneck' had occurred highlighting not only a radical reduction in the human population but also that our collective DNA had diminished in variety for some unknown reason.

     The reason was not long in finding.  A geologist visiting a university in North-central USA was attending a genetics seminar given by a geneticist. At the end of the seminar the geologist was talking to the geneticist and mentioned 'Super volcanos'. The geologist explained about the Lake Toba super volcano eruption some 75 000 years ago and the scientists were able to make the connection between the Lake Toba Super volcano eruption and the cataclysmic reduction in variety of the human DNA, estimated to have occurred some ± 70 000 ago as well! an so it was established that the Lake Toba Super volcano eruption was responsible for the volcanic winter, that lasted for an estimated 1000 thousand years, and which lead to the near annihilation of the entire human race and the modification of the human DNA today.


click to enlargen
The Lake Toba caldera is 18 x 60 miles (30 by 100 km) and has a total relief of 5,100 feet (1700 m). The caldera probably formed in stages. Large eruptions occurred 840,000, ± 700,000, and 75,000 years ago.
The eruption 75,000 years ago produced the Young Toba Tuff. The Young Toba Tuff was erupted from ring fractures that surround most or all of the present-day lake. There have been no eruptions at Toba in historical time. The area is seismically active with major earthquakes in 1892, 1916, 1920-1922, and 1987.

Conclusion - The future

     The Yellowstone super volcano is under close watch but what if the eruption come from another, as yet unknown, supervolcano? What would the impact be? What if the eruption came from a submarine supervolcano? The sizes of the resulting Tsunamis would be such that whole, densely populated (not to say overpopulated) regions of our planet (Bangla Desh , Hong Kong, Japan, California, Europe...) would be submerged.
The Lake Toba eruption produced the largest eruption in the last 2 million years and even with this knowledge combined with data from the other known supervolcanoes, the scientists have no way of preparing for them, they have no precedence, no factual, historical data to work from only projections and theories.
          While it is true that scientists have no idea exactly what the impact of such an eruption would be it does not need imagining what the after effect of such a cataclysm today would actually be. If the Yellowstone super volcano explodes¹, or any other on this planet for that matter, not only would virtually the whole of the USA be devastated but the entire planet would be immersed in a volcanic winter lasting perhaps another 1000 years. While it is true that there are 6 Billion people alive today, much more than 75 000 years ago, the consequence of such a cataclysm would put an enormous strain on the human race, reshaping geographical and political boundaries,wasting global agriculture and ruining whole economies.
Scientists are all apparently unanimous in saying that it is not a case of 'if' a super volcano explodes but 'when')

Final word.
      The documentary drew to it's end on this rather pessimistic note leaving the viewer to reflect on the future. It did tend to relegate everyday worries to a secondary role. However the human being is a resilient creature and the house payments have to be paid so, being an optimistic soul I do not doubt that scientists are working on solutions at the moment and we will not have to leave the earth to populate another planet just yet.

Thanks. A very special thanks to the NASA, the NOAA, the Yellowstone national park for the technical data and of course the BBC,, after having watched what was a very intriguing and interesting documentary, for the idea. I have tried not to copy the script itself but be influenced by the theme.

© Nicholas Richards 2004

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